Four the future - December 24

Today: affordable density, Portland biking, population estimates, and straw-bale houses.

• But is it Affordable?
  Source: Sightline Daily, 090422
  Summary: Dense growth in Vancouver, BC, has been strong, but prices are high. Adding more units satisfies the supply side of the equation, but density in itself is not enough. New York and San Francisco are not considered affordable, either. The price of condominiums in Vancouver has increased from C$1000/month in 2000 to C$2200/month in 2007. Part of this is due to the same hyper-escalation that the US experienced. Perhaps prices will come down just as they have been in the US. The Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives has recommended some new policies, including requiring 20% of housing be affordable and reduce parking requirements.
  Opinion: This is actually a problem beyond mere housing policy--it ranges into the area of finance, and the glut of cash in the United States not dedicated to any particular purpose. All this excess cash flows from one sector to another causing bubbles which burst when it moves on to the next sector. Remember the dot com speculation? Then housing speculation, then oil speculation.... This explains how building activity increased so greatly, yet prices went up--the value of cash in the housing market went down, because there was too much available. It was the same with the other bubbles. Planners can't account for where this speculation craze will go next. Some people have called this "casino capitalism," and I agree. The solution must come from outside planning, such as financial re-regulation and the return of defined benefit pensions.


• Just how boldly will Portland go into bike future?
  Source: The Oregonian, 091222
  Summary: For the first time in five years, the number of bike rides in Portland went down. Portland had spent money on increasing bike use, and some bike-hating bloggers complain about it. Portland's bike plan says that 1% of the population are "strong and fearless" bikers, and another 10 to 15 percent will bike with good lanes. Copenhagen and Amsterdam have ridership levels of up to 40 percent because of bike only boulevards and extra-wide bike lanes. However, in Portland, the low hanging fruit may have already been harvested, and to get the next group of bikers, higher levels of investment will be required.
  Opinion: Higher levels of biking is better for public health, the environment, and both private and public budgets. I've always thought it was bizarre that people would drive their cars to go to a gym to ride the bikes. The attitude is so pervasive, most of the soldiers in my unit did the same thing when I was in the Army. I ran the mile and a half to and from physical training each morning, and after a while I scored so well on my physical strength and endurance tests that I wasn't required to go to training with the other soldiers. We need a change in attitude. We've subsidized automobile activity for decades from the building and maintenance of roads, oil subsidies, and allowing unmitigated pollution to enter the air. It's gotten so bad that auto ownership is almost a requirement in modern America. Through their policies, our governments have substantially taken away the freedom to not own a car. It's time to change the equation: let's put more into sidewalks, bike lanes and boulevards, and transit to try to re-balance our transportation system.


• Recession Slows Population Rise Across Sun Belt
  Source: New York Times, 091223
  Summary: States in the west and south are growing slower partially as a result of the housing recession. In the last population estimate prior to the 2010 decennial census, the census bureau found that Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina have slowed growth, while Florida, Nevada and California actually had more people move out than move in. States in the northeast have been shrinking less quickly. The decennial census affects how many representatives each state has. Based on the 2009 estimate, Texas will gain three seats, while Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington would each gain one. Since the House is limited to 435 seats, Ohio would lose two, which Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania would each lose one.
  Opinion: Planners use the census to track changes in population, in part to anticipate growth requirements. Not all states have this issue: Michigan only increased by 0.3%, while Washington increased by 13%, in the last 9 years. Additionally, planners use the income, social and housing data to determine what kinds of services may be necessary and track economic trends. It's important data, so it's important to answer the census questions. That, and it's the law: congress actually authorized jail time for those who do not answer, though I'm not sure that prosecutors are likely to follow through on that!
  
  


• In Idaho, a house made from straw and mud
  Source: The Christian Science Monitor, 091223
  Summary: Mark Lung is building a straw and mud house in Boise. The hay bales provide insulation, and are less expensive than traditional materials. The house he's building costs $86/sq.ft. (excluding land), just $165,000 for a 1900 square foot house. He previously lived in a similar house in Colorado and while the temperature ranged from 20 to 80 Fahrenheit outside, the interior stayed between 68 and 72 without heating or cooling. Straw-bale homes aren't built in some areas because codes haven't been updated to include them.
  Opinion: Well, let's update them! (Yes, easier said than done.) There will be value in adopting standards and the expertise to ensure that they are built safely and efficiently. This also gives us a way to reduce energy needs and produces a demand (though, minimal) for a product grown in this region.