Four the Future - Housing

• Hailey council repeals affordable housing rules
  Source: Idaho Statesman; October 13, 2010
  Summary: In a report mentioned in my Foundations of Planning class last quarter, the resort town of Hailey, Idaho, repealed its affordable housing requirement due to fear of litigation. Prior to the repeal, 20% of new subdivisions were required to be deed-restricted community housing. This is a tool used nationwide. Annexations and planned developments will still have the requirement.
  Opinion: The comments on the article are telling. One person wants a reduction in all regulations (Somalia-style, apparently). Another (sarcastically, I hope) calls for "your kind" to live elsewhere, and just drive into town to "do our yard work, teach our children and protect us from fires and criminals." I could not have said it better. There's no better way to make a disgruntled working class by banishing them to the sticks each night.
  
• CNU and NTBA's Reform of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and related housing programs
  Source: Congress for the New Urbanism; December 17, 2010
  Summary: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two federally chartered secondary mortgage agencies are implicated in the housing bubble. Part of the meltdown was precipitated by the distortionary effects of HUD, Fannie, and Freddie’s policies of limiting the amount of non-residential space included in mixed use developments. Mixed use developments have held their value, yet remain substantially excluded from the secondary mortgage market. Fannie Mae allows projects to be up to 20% non-residential; Freddie Mac allows 25%. HUD’s capital program restricts imputed non-residential rent to 20%. The Congress for the New Urbanism and the National Town Builders Association propose to raise these limits to 50%. This would allow the market to determine the mix, rather than federal policy.
  Opinion: When these loans are ineligible for the secondary mortgage market, banks must carry the note and they become unable to resell them in an efficient manner. And while I do believe that banks should be required to retain a portion of the project risk (after all, if they have no skin in the game, they can do whatever they want and have proven they will), I can see how these limitations could limit the availability of funding for mixed use projects. Alternatively, it could cause the residential uses to be exclusively high-rent in order to make the retail space a small percentage of the overall cost. Either way, it is bad for cities and causes sprawl through federal housing policy.
  
• Tiny house movement thrives amid real estate bust
  Source: Yahoo! News; November 29, 2010
  Summary: Despite of the housing crisis, or perhaps because of it, one sector of the housing market is booming: that of the "tiny house." Tiny houses can be as small as the 89 square foot house mentioned in the article, but entire families can live in a 500 square foot house. They invite a comparison to trailers, but these are built with higher quality materials. They range in cost from $20,000 to $50,000.
  Opinion: You can visit the tiny house blog at tinyhouseblog.com. This concept could be useful for accessory dwelling units (also known as granny flats). Basically, you’d put this in your backyard, and you’d have a room for another (tiny) family. This allows the community to grow without sprawling further. The back of the envelope calculation ($25,000, 20-year, 6% loan) is only $179.11/month, which is affordable for all but the most destitute. And R. Buckminster Fuller would be proud (I’ll explain that statement in a later post!) This is unlikely to become a large segment of the housing market, but jurisdictions should be prepared to deal with them.
  
• Homeownership stays at the lowest level in a decade
  Source: USA Today; November 2, 2010
  Summary: Prior to the Clinton and Bush administrations, home ownership rate was level at about 64%. Upon the deregulation of the investment banks, home ownership rose to 69% in 2004. With foreclosures and weak demand, home ownership has now dropped to 66.9%, the lowest since 1999. Housing vacancy is now at 18.8 million units, or 14% of all housing.
  
  
  A man rides a horse by an abandoned home in Las Vegas. Spencer Platt, Getty Images
  
  Opinion: This statistic would tend to indicate that we still have a bit lower to go to return to the levels before the unwise deregulation of investment banks. But, note, that the small percentage increase caused a massive increase in the cost of home ownership and shenanigans on the part of casino owners…I mean bankers. The increase in the ownership percentage was clearly not worth the worldwide pain being suffered now. Please let it be a lesson.
  

Four the future - December 24

Today: affordable density, Portland biking, population estimates, and straw-bale houses.

• But is it Affordable?
  Source: Sightline Daily, 090422
  Summary: Dense growth in Vancouver, BC, has been strong, but prices are high. Adding more units satisfies the supply side of the equation, but density in itself is not enough. New York and San Francisco are not considered affordable, either. The price of condominiums in Vancouver has increased from C$1000/month in 2000 to C$2200/month in 2007. Part of this is due to the same hyper-escalation that the US experienced. Perhaps prices will come down just as they have been in the US. The Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives has recommended some new policies, including requiring 20% of housing be affordable and reduce parking requirements.
  Opinion: This is actually a problem beyond mere housing policy--it ranges into the area of finance, and the glut of cash in the United States not dedicated to any particular purpose. All this excess cash flows from one sector to another causing bubbles which burst when it moves on to the next sector. Remember the dot com speculation? Then housing speculation, then oil speculation.... This explains how building activity increased so greatly, yet prices went up--the value of cash in the housing market went down, because there was too much available. It was the same with the other bubbles. Planners can't account for where this speculation craze will go next. Some people have called this "casino capitalism," and I agree. The solution must come from outside planning, such as financial re-regulation and the return of defined benefit pensions.


• Just how boldly will Portland go into bike future?
  Source: The Oregonian, 091222
  Summary: For the first time in five years, the number of bike rides in Portland went down. Portland had spent money on increasing bike use, and some bike-hating bloggers complain about it. Portland's bike plan says that 1% of the population are "strong and fearless" bikers, and another 10 to 15 percent will bike with good lanes. Copenhagen and Amsterdam have ridership levels of up to 40 percent because of bike only boulevards and extra-wide bike lanes. However, in Portland, the low hanging fruit may have already been harvested, and to get the next group of bikers, higher levels of investment will be required.
  Opinion: Higher levels of biking is better for public health, the environment, and both private and public budgets. I've always thought it was bizarre that people would drive their cars to go to a gym to ride the bikes. The attitude is so pervasive, most of the soldiers in my unit did the same thing when I was in the Army. I ran the mile and a half to and from physical training each morning, and after a while I scored so well on my physical strength and endurance tests that I wasn't required to go to training with the other soldiers. We need a change in attitude. We've subsidized automobile activity for decades from the building and maintenance of roads, oil subsidies, and allowing unmitigated pollution to enter the air. It's gotten so bad that auto ownership is almost a requirement in modern America. Through their policies, our governments have substantially taken away the freedom to not own a car. It's time to change the equation: let's put more into sidewalks, bike lanes and boulevards, and transit to try to re-balance our transportation system.


• Recession Slows Population Rise Across Sun Belt
  Source: New York Times, 091223
  Summary: States in the west and south are growing slower partially as a result of the housing recession. In the last population estimate prior to the 2010 decennial census, the census bureau found that Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina have slowed growth, while Florida, Nevada and California actually had more people move out than move in. States in the northeast have been shrinking less quickly. The decennial census affects how many representatives each state has. Based on the 2009 estimate, Texas will gain three seats, while Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington would each gain one. Since the House is limited to 435 seats, Ohio would lose two, which Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania would each lose one.
  Opinion: Planners use the census to track changes in population, in part to anticipate growth requirements. Not all states have this issue: Michigan only increased by 0.3%, while Washington increased by 13%, in the last 9 years. Additionally, planners use the income, social and housing data to determine what kinds of services may be necessary and track economic trends. It's important data, so it's important to answer the census questions. That, and it's the law: congress actually authorized jail time for those who do not answer, though I'm not sure that prosecutors are likely to follow through on that!
  
  


• In Idaho, a house made from straw and mud
  Source: The Christian Science Monitor, 091223
  Summary: Mark Lung is building a straw and mud house in Boise. The hay bales provide insulation, and are less expensive than traditional materials. The house he's building costs $86/sq.ft. (excluding land), just $165,000 for a 1900 square foot house. He previously lived in a similar house in Colorado and while the temperature ranged from 20 to 80 Fahrenheit outside, the interior stayed between 68 and 72 without heating or cooling. Straw-bale homes aren't built in some areas because codes haven't been updated to include them.
  Opinion: Well, let's update them! (Yes, easier said than done.) There will be value in adopting standards and the expertise to ensure that they are built safely and efficiently. This also gives us a way to reduce energy needs and produces a demand (though, minimal) for a product grown in this region.